Analysis, Perspective, Trading Strategy
Trend Remains Up for now. But anything is still Possible.
Duarte in the Money Options
We are entering a traditionally bullish seasonal period in
the stock market, and it is likely that the tradition of a bullish
December into January period will play out right on schedule. Certainly,
this is not a market without risk. But for now, as I’ve noted here
multiple times the bears have yet to prove their case convincingly
especially when they are operating with the support of what could be
the Mother of all Walls of Worry.
The Wall of Worry That Keeps on Giving
The late Market Master, Marty Zweig, whom I am paraphrasing, used
to say: “the times when I’m most worried are the times when I’m not
worried.” And as foreign as that may sound, this is a perfect market
in which to use that tightness in the pit of your stomach as a sign
that things are on or off track. In other words, that day in which
you turn on your trading rig and start feeling smug and deliriously
happy, it’s probably a good day to start raising cash. And to be honest,
my stomach pit is as tight now as it’s ever been, which is why I’m
still long this market, even as I crane my neck to keep an eye on the
Yup, here is what’s morbidly encouraging: bull markets climb walls
of worry and this one has a monster of a wall which keeps on giving.
Indeed, the more heartburn that circumstances create, the higher the
market goes. And the cycle continues to repeat.
So, for the umpteenth time I will note that as long as the Federal
Reserve continues to pump money into the banking system, the odds of
stocks remaining in an uptrend are well over even. Still, there are
plenty of things to worry about, which I won’t bother naming since
we all know them by now.
Moreover, and here is something to consider as we continue to play
the uptrend, there are now signs of capitulation by some permabears,
whom I won’t name either as it is their change of tune which gives
me some concern. Thus, all I can say is don’t fight the Fed and the
momentum, but always be aware that there may be something out there
which can pop up at any time and wound the bull market, if not mortally,
This is a great time to have your own set of go to indicators at
your fingertips. To learn how to build your own NYSE Advance Decline
line like I do and how to use it, check out my latest Your Daily Five
video: “How to build my Favorite Indicator.” Click here .
MEL Bellwether Alert - Brinker Nears Breakout with Big Bets
Big on Virtual Wings
I recently recommended purchasing shares of casual dining restaurant
chain Brinker International (EAT) and I found the stock by kicking
the tires. What I found is that Brinker’s management is finally, after
all these years of being wallflowers, is showing some of the Moxy of
yesteryear when the company used to rule casual dining. In fact, what
I’m seeing at the moment falls into the category of Brinker possibly
becoming a MEL bellwether. MEL, of course is the complex adaptive system
composed of the Markets (M), the economy (E) and people’s lives decisions
So, this whole thing began a few months back when I traveled to West
Texas. Since the hotel restaurant was closed, I had to do takeout meals
from nearby restaurants. Luckily, there was a Chili’s nearby and I
ordered an Old Timer burger. Now, I hadn’t been to a Chili’s in a long
time, specifically, because the Old Timer had lost its bite. The recent
burgers were smaller than they used to be and the price had gone up.
This, of course, explains why over the past few years, Brinker’s stock
had been down in the dumps, they lost touch with their customer’s needs;
good food at a reasonable price. The bottom line is that they had lost
their way and those of us who had been fans of their offerings for
years just took our business elsewhere.
But here’s what happened. When I opened the bag, I saw an Old Timer
that looked like they used to; good sized, cooked just right, and actually
mouthwatering. Indeed, the burger was about as good as I could remember.
So, I did what I always do, I started looking at the stock. And at
that time, it was just starting to turn around.
Moreover, as I dug deeper, and started going back for Old Timers
more often, I discovered that store traffic was up. People were actually
dining in. And more important the take-out business was actually booming.
In fact, my observations were confirmed during the recent company earnings
call backing a quarter that handily beat expectations. The bottom line
is that business bottomed out in September and that traffic, revenues,
and order flow are on the rise.
Now, it gets interesting. While other restaurants are still struggling,
Brinker, whose more upscale Maggiano’s brand is just now starting to
bottom out, has added a new brand – It’s Just Wings, a virtual wings
restaurant where Brinker does the cooking and Door Dash does the deliveries.
According to the earnings call, the venture is on its way to doing
at least $150 million in its first year, with repeat business outperforming
Technically, the stock is on the Brink – pun intended - of what could
be an explosive chart breakout with reliable support at the 50-day
moving average which can be used as an entry point on dips if the stock
holds there. Accumulation Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume
(OBV) are both very encouraging and volume analysis and Volume by Price
(VBP) suggesting there is no meaningful overhead resistance to contend
The bottom line is that as we continue through these COVID-19 influenced
times, it pays to not just take a trip to West Texas, but also to get
out and kick the tires a bit. Indeed, MEL is a complex adaptive system
and until proven otherwise, it looks as if Brinker has found a way
to adapt successfully to this Brave New World.
Brinker is certainly a diamond in the rough, but just this week I
found another highly compelling stock which I just recommended to my
subs. Find out why I like this stock by taking a FREE trial to Joe
Duarte in the Money Options.com. Click
NYAD Breaks Out Makes New Highs
The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) broke out
last week and followed up with several new highs, a sign that money
flows into the stock market are picking up steam. We also got confirmation
on the new highs from the Dow Industrials (INDU), the S & P 500
(SPX), the Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). What
this means, is that at the moment, the uptrend seems solid and the
odds of higher prices are favorable.
Also encouraging is the fact that the Accumulation Distribution (ADI)
and on Balance Volume (OBV) indicators for the S & P 500 (SPX)
and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) indices improved from the prior week’s softer
Interestingly, this week I added the Nasdaq Composite into my analysis
and even that broad index is positive. Indeed things look a bit more
encouraging as OBV and ADI for COMPQ are much stronger than would be
expected given the large amounts of worrying in the market.
So, for now, the trend is up and although we all know it can’t last
forever, it’s foolish to fight the trend.
Don’t Fight this Market but Don’t Expect this to last Forever
The stock market is picking up steam. And while that is a good thing
for the bulls, there is way too much that can go crazy in a heartbeat,
so some caution is warranted. Still, the Fed continues to put money
into the banking system which so far has proven to be a long-term positive
for stocks. And since the Fed is not likely to change its posture for
at least the next twelve months, it is plausible to consider the possibility
that this bull market still has several good months left in it.
Of course, aside from the Fed, the other very reliable variable over
the last six months has been stock picking and the willingness to take
profits when you have big winners. In other words, the bull market
is only as good as the stocks in your portfolio, the setting of precise
sell stops, and the ability to see how MEL is evolving at any one time.
For more on how to deal with the current market checkout my latest
Your Daily Five video here .
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader and a widely
recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author
of eight investment books, including the best sellingTrading
Options for Dummies, rated a TOP
Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com - now in its third edition, The
Everything Investing in your 20s and 30s and six other trading
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