Analysis, Perspective, Trading Strategy
Can Stocks shake off the Algo Fueled Chinese Trade War Fire Drill?
Duarte in the Money Options
is past but I am thankful that trading algos have a short memory as the
stock market spent the holiday week walking on egg shells resulting from
the interplay between the Federal Reserve, the bond market, and the U.S.
and China over trade.
Make no mistake about it, rightly or wrongly, the elephant in the
room remains the U.S.-China trade war and last week’s Chinese fire
drill was a perfect example. Indeed, stocks were starting to rebound
after a short term pullback when President Trump, midweek, signed a
House resolution condemning the Hong Kong situation. Of course China
got tense about it, and although nothing concrete has come of it yet,
the algos didn’t like it so they sold the futures and stocks followed.
This was worsened by thin markets due to the holiday with prices rolling
over and the week closed on a sour note.
But that was last week, when we were stuck in a China headline influenced
macro environment which may or may not be resolved in the near future.
And so we are headed to a new week, and what we know from experience
is that algos are reactive and easily amused entities. Moreover since
headlines are likely to be plentiful next week –multiple global PMIs,
regional U.S. business surveys, mortgage data, and private and government
employment reports- the odds favor that unless the economy is imploding
as we speak, something that robot consider positive will come along
and distract them to the point where they buy stocks again, unless,
of course they get thrown off by the Trump-Rocky portrait.
Homebuilder Stocks Could Have a Long Term Upswing if the
Bond Market Behaves
Algos aside, one thing to have been very thankful for during last week’s
Thanksgiving holiday was the relatively quiet action in the bond market
as yields remained below 1.8 percent yield on the U.S. Ten Year note
(TNX). Certainly bond yields are well off their recent lows near 1.5
percent and although the trend is leaning toward higher rates, bond traders
didn’t seem to be in a hu hurry to take another stab at moving yields
above the 1.9 area last week.
This general calm in the treasury market was helpful
to the housing sector, where the Markets-Economy-Life complex adaptive
ecosystem (MEL) has a deep footprint given the fact that market interest
rates are the benchmark for the trend in mortgage rates and buying
a house is one of life’s biggest decisions. Indeed, last week’s mortgage
data showed a flattening out of refinancing activity while pending
home sales were slightly lower than expected as rates have risen lately,
but remain lower than last year.
Unfortunately that pattern changed on the week ending 11/22/19. Certainly,
NYAD is not signaling However; and here is where it gets interesting,
sales for new homes continued to climb, while the median home price
is falling at a time when there is high demand and low supply for homes.
So when we put all the pieces together, a fairly positive tale emerges
regarding the homebuilder stocks, which recently pulled back when bond
yields started to rise, but have stabilized and may be poised to start
a new rally barring a new bond market temper tantrum.
Accordingly, two reliable housing stocks, DR Horton (DHI) and KB
Home (KBH) seem to be righting their respective ships. DHI is the largest
homebuilder in the U.S., and thus has the scale to continue to operate
with less stress than its competitors. It has been paying down debt
and expanding its market share, which remains a major portion of its
business plan. Meanwhile KBH has developed into an excellent niche
player which capitalizes on location, amenities, and catering to first
time home buyers and empty nesters, the two largest home buyer groups.
Both companies are describing a market in which they have no shortage
of buyers and in which they continue to buy properties and steadily
deploy development plans. But here’s the catch, neither of them has
any real pricing power, which has resulted in the need to use promotions
to close sales. So far, the strategy has worked as both companies have
delivered very good earnings news of late, albeit with mixed revenues,
while providing positive earnings guidance.
Furthermore we are experiencing a generational shift where the migration
of Americans from high tax to low tax states, a point illustrated by
a recent poll from the Garden
State Initiative and Fairleigh-Dickinson University which concluded
that over 40% of New Jersey’s population is planning on leaving the
state over the next five years. It seems that this is an intangible
factor which may make the difference in the top and bottom lines of
homebuilders as it continues.
Familiar readers will remember my noting the large and ongoing number
of out of state license plates in Texas. Now there is census
data showing that Texas is the most popular destination for those
leaving California. Most interesting is the fact that startups are
starting to leave the Bay Area and that Fortune 500 companies, medical
supply giant McKesson (MCK), Coremark Holdings (CORE) and now Charles
Schwab have moved to the Dallas area joining JP Morgan Chase (JPM)
whose massive relocation
to Plano, Texas is ongoing.
My point is not political. It’s just a fact that if more people are
moving to new areas housing availability will have to be increased
in those locations. This is evident in Dallas where apartment building
remains robust and where new housing developments as well as tearing
down of older homes in order to build new ones seems to be growing
Thus, even if some areas of the country may face decreasing demand,
which is actually not evident yet, others will clearly pick up the
slack. In other words, the demographics and the balance of supply and
demand are on the sides of the homebuilders, all of which means that
the potential negatives – interest rates and the general state of the
economy- are outside their control and as long as those remain reasonable,
the homebuilders are likely to keep on doing what seems to be fairly
good business. Accordingly, it may make sense to ease back into the
housing sector while keeping a very close eye on the bond market and
the employment picture.
Incidentally, I will be appearing at the February 2020 Money Show
in Orlando where I will be discussing the ins and outs of the Markets-Economy-Life
ecosystem (MEL) and how I use it to pick winning stocks. Attend
free to watch my presentation, meet me up-close and personal,
and ask your most pressing questions. Discover the best investing and
trading opportunities and learn how to adjust your portfolio and strategies
for 2020’s unique market conditions. For information on how to register
and details on the presentation go here.
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
indexes rolled over at the end of the week, but also delivered intraweek
highs confirming the general positive tone of the AD line.
Also a positive is the fact that small and midcap stocks have also
been moving steadily higher suggesting that the rally still has some
So, for now, as long as interest rates remain stable and there is
no major blow up in the U.S.-China trade talks, the bulls get the benefit
of the doubt.
Patience and Selectivity Remain the Key to Success in this
The odds of a year-end rally remain better than even but the difficulty
in making money will be in picking which stocks are likely to rise.
Moreover, the recent rotation away from tech and dividend stocks remains
difficult to analyze, as there are a lot of false breakouts on a regular
Thus it makes sense to avoid the broad stroke approach, such as using
sector ETFs and to run large screens of stocks while picking the ones
that seem to be the strongest. Meanwhile, keeping a short leash on
them with sell stops in the five percent area and keeping a small hedge
on may also be helpful.
I have added seven new stocks to my subscriber portfolio which should
move nicely higher in a year-end rally. For a FREE trial subscription
check out the link below.
Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader and a widely
recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author
of eight investment books, including the best sellingTrading
Options for Dummies, rated a TOP
Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com - now in its third edition, The
Everything Investing in your 20s and 30s and six other trading
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